SYNOPSIS: A strong cold front is approaching from the west. This will destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of showers, with possible thunderstorm, and occasional strong gusty winds. Snow levels will drop to near 1500 metres this afternoon. A cooler air mass will dominate tomorrow for scattered flurries and snow showers, with some sunny breaks as well.
FREEZING LEVEL: Near 2000 metres this morning lowering to 1700 metres this afternoon and valley bottom overnight. Rising tomorrow to near 1600 metres.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST: TODAY: Increasing cloud with showers developing. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon. Snow level near 1800 metres this morning falling this afternoon to below 1600 metres. Snow accumulation 3 to 8 cm, greatest in the higher elevations. High near +6 with temperature falling in the early afternoon.
TONIGHT: Possible evening flurries or snow showers. Then partial clearing. Low -3. WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a 60% chance of flurries or snow showers. Slight risk of thunder, with brief strong gusty winds. High near +1.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -4.
OUTLOOK: THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries or snow showers. Minor accumulation possible. Winds light except with showers. High +2.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 40% chance of snow developing late in the day. High near +3.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks, with a 40% chance of flurries. High near +2.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: A sharp change is in store today from the very mild conditions experienced yesterday, as an active cold front sweeps through early this afternoon. This should being a very noticeable drop in temperatures, but most of the precipitation with this appears farther north on the satellite imagery and models, so amounts forecasts are not high; however with the sharp cooling and instability comes the potential for a short lived quick dump. Strong gusty winds are very likely with the showers, and unfortunately quite a risk of thunder as well. The unstable and cooler air (fairly typical early spring pattern) will stay with us for the rest of the week and into next weekend. Convective flurries will develop each day, temperatures a little below seasonal average, and some sunshine as well. It’s possible there might be a more organized disturbance bringing periods of snow late Friday, and again on Sunday, but too early to call at this point.
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