SYNOPSIS: A narrow ridge of high pressure approaching from the west brings partial clearing this evening with patchy fog and low cloud likely developing overnight. A few sunny breaks are possible Monday morning before the leading edge (warm front) of the next Pacific frontal system brings thickening cloud and moderate winds in the afternoon with a risk of rain showers developing by sunset. Rain or mixed rain/snow should begin Monday evening as the dissipating system advances eastward over the area. Precipitation turns to snow overnight, then tapers off by Tuesday morning, followed by mainly cloudy skies the remainder of the day. Temperatures trend slightly milder on Monday, then level off or else trend slightly cooler on Tuesday.
FREEZING LEVEL: Returning to the surface tonight. Rising to between 1900 and 2200 metres Monday afternoon. Lowering to between 1200 and 1400m Monday night. Between 1800 and 2100 metres on Tuesday.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST: TONIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods. Patchy fog/low cloud develops overnight. Low near -2.
MONDAY: Cloudy with patchy fog and a few possible sunny breaks in the morning. Thickening cloud in the afternoon. 30% chance showers developing late in the day. High near +6.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers or mixed precipitation developing in the evening, becoming snow overnight. Accumulations up to 5cm (melted water equivalent up to 10mm). Low near -1.
OUTLOOK: TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. 30% chance of wet flurries or rain showers. High near +5.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 60% chance of rain showers or wet flurries. High near +4.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers or wet flurries. High near +4.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair. Some guidance suggests a weak upper disturbance may provide enough instability in the area for flurries at times tonight. Some uncertainty when the first bands of precipitation will arrive tomorrow, with recent trends suggesting a slightly quicker approach than before. The area should be positioned between systems on Tuesday and into Wednesday with a few possible sunny periods before the next in a series of Pacific frontal systems passes eastward across southern BC Wednesday night bringing light or potentially moderate precipitation (although some guidance downplays precipitation amounts with this system, showing it diving south of the area instead). The area should be positioned between systems again on Thursday for generally dry weather with partly sunny skies. No significant temperature trends are expected through the outlook period. A warming and drying trend may begin on Friday as a mild southwesterly flow gains control over the East Kootenay in response to a strengthening upper ridge over the southwestern states.
