SYNOPSIS: The remnants of a Pacific cold front will provide variable cloud and a 40% chance of flurries this morning. An unstable northwesterly flow will develop in its wake which should result in clouds, sunny breaks, scattered flurries or snow showers and gusty winds during the afternoon and early evening. Clouds and flurries should prevail on Wednesday as an upper trough over central Alberta attempts to spiral patchy moisture southwestward and a separate disturbance clips eastward along or just south of the International Border.
FREEZING LEVEL: Between 1600 & 1900 metres today. Dropping to near 1000-1100 metres overnight. Rising to between 1600 & 1900 metres again Wednesday afternoon.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST: TODAY: Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks. 40% chance of morning flurries, 60% chance of wet flurries or snow showers during the afternoon. Snow level 1400-1600 metres, accumulation from a trace to 4 cm. Windy at times. High near +4.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with evening clear breaks. 60% chance of early evening flurries with gusty winds. 40% chance of flurries late overnight. Accumulation from a trace to 3 cm. Low near -3.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with a 70% chance of flurries. Snow level 1400-1700, minor accumulation likely. High near +3.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear breaks, 60% chance of evening flurries. Low near -3.
OUTLOOK: THURSDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries during the morning and occasional snow during the afternoon. Snow level 1400-1700 metres, light accumulation above. Increasing wind. High near +2. Snow & snow showers Thursday night, snow level trending lower, moderate to heavy accumulation possible.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries or possible snow showers during the morning. Cloudy with sunny breaks and a 60% chance of flurries during the afternoon. High near +4.
SATURDAY: Mainly sunny. High near +8.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair confidence. Airmass instability is also a small risk for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Mixed signals for late tonight and Wednesday. The most recent guidance now holds the Alberta trough further north and suggests a warm front will push eastward across southern BC (over a weak upper ridge of high pressure) for occasional precipitation on Wednesday. This systems positioning is still questionable and it also appears likely to dissipate some as it pushes eastward. The timing of the next (more significant) frontal system remains of issue but Thursday night still appears most prone for its heavier band of precipitation. Tough call on the local snow level Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.
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