SYNOPSIS: Moisture entrained in a cool return (easterly) flow rotating around a low pressure centre over the Prairies maintains cloudy skies and a good chance of flurries or snow showers in the Fernie area today, with a risk of flurries continuing tonight and into Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure currently building over northwestern BC should begin to gain control over the area late Tuesday or Tuesday night bringing increasingly stable conditions. A cross-Rockies surface pressure gradient should produce gusty easterly winds at times today, tonight, and Tuesday.
FREEZING LEVEL: Currently at the surface, lifting to between 1300 and 1500m this afternoon. Returning to the surface tonight. Rising to between 1400 and 1700m Tuesday afternoon. Surface Tuesday night.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST: TODAY: Mainly cloudy with occasional flurries or snow showers. Accumulations up to 5cm. Winds gusty at times. High near -3.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with possible clear breaks. 40% chance of flurries, possible accumulations to 3cm. Winds may be gusty at times. Low near -9.
TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with a 30% chance of flurries. Winds may be gusty in the morning. High near -1.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods. Low near -10.
OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. High near +3.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with a few possible sunny breaks in the morning. 30% chance of flurries developing late in the day, becoming a 40% chance of flurries overnight. Increasing winds. Afternoon high near +4.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with gusty winds and occasional snow. High near +1.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair today and Tuesday, improving somewhat Tuesday night and Wednesday, then deteriorating towards the end of the week. Tough call on maximum wind gusts over the next 36 hours, with some sites in the Kootenays reporting easterly gusts in the 70km/hr range this morning. An upper ridge remains in control over southeastern BC Wednesday and Wednesday night before the next Pacific frontal system advances inland Thursday, followed by an unstable day with cooler temperatures on Friday. Current guidance favours the convective atmosphere following in behind this next system for a better potential for producing more than a light accumulation of snow locally (Thursday night or Friday).
