SYNOPSIS: Expect a mix of sun and high cloud today as limited moisture entrained in a cool northwesterly flow passes over the East Kootenay. A weakening Pacific frontal system and associated upper trough approach from the northwest late overnight bringing increasing cloud and a good chance of flurries towards morning. An Arctic airmass should push west of the Rockies on Monday, undercutting the exiting Pacific system to support a few flurries or occasional snow as winds strengthen and temperatures trend several degrees colder. Expect clearing skies and cold temperatures Monday night as winds diminish.
FREEZING LEVEL: Surface.
FERNIE ALPINE RESORT FORECAST: TODAY: A mix of sun and high cloud. High near -5.
TONIGHT: Increasing cloud overnight with a 70% chance of flurries developing near morning, up to 2cm. Low near -12.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a few flurries or occasional snow, accumulation from 3cm to 6cm. Strengthening winds. High near -8, trending to near -12 mid-late afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: A few cloudy periods and a slight chance of a lingering flurry in the evening. Clearing overnight. Moderate winds are possible in the evening, becoming light by midnight. Low near -20.
OUTLOOK: TUESDAY: Mainly sunny. High near -9.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny. High near -4.
THURSDAY: Sunny with afternoon cloudy periods. High near -2.
CONFIDENCE/DISCUSSION: Fair to good on the general pattern, fair on a few details (especially Monday). Some debate on whether tonight’s cloud will prevent local temperatures from dipping quite as low as forecast. The details of Monday’s Arctic outbreak remain somewhat uncertain – recent guidance seems to be narrowing down on the timing of the approaching cold air - more difficult are snowfall accumulations (this forecast is leaning towards the lighter end of possible scenarios). High pressure and a dry northerly flow should maintain mainly sunny skies Tuesday and Wednesday as a deep inversion likely confines strong upper winds above ridgetop elevations. Tough call at this stage how strong the developing inversion will be (above freezing temperatures at ridgetop elevations do not appear likely Tuesday or Wednesday). A weak Pacific system should approach from the west late Thursday brining increasing cloud and a good chance of evening flurries while mixing out any residual inversion left over from Tuesday/Wednesday’s pattern.
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